How far is the new car-building force from a bumper harvest?
In recent months, the new car-making forces have been good news again and again.
On July 30, Ideal Motors was listed on NASDAQ; on the evening of August 27, Xiaopeng Motors officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Following the 2018 IPO of Weilai Automobile, there are finally two new car-building forces to publicly offer shares.
Since the Q2 quarter, Weilai and Ideal have achieved positive gross profit margins and started to have certain profitability. At the beginning of October, a number of new self-manufacturing forces posted orders. In the third quarter, Weilai took the lead in selling over 10,000. The zero running car, which was established less than 4 years ago, also sold more than 1,000 a month for the first time in September.
On October 13, the Shanghai Securities Regulatory Bureau disclosed that Weimar Motors plans to go public. On October 15th, JPMorgan Chase’s rating report adjusted Weilai Automobile (NIO.US) from “neutral” to “overweight”, which directly contributed to Weilai’s growth against the trend in the general decline of US stocks, and the highest intraday stock price reached US$29.23 per share.
From this point of view , the new car-making forces seem to have entered a "harvest period."
However, from the perspective of industry competition, the most important thing for a bumper harvest is not how much attention it has in the capital market, but whether it has sustained profitability. The most critical factor affecting sustained profitability is whether it has long-term stable sales.
If sales cannot increase steadily, the profitability currently seen is only a flash in the pan, and a bumper harvest is just an unattainable dream for the new forces, or a simple idea, not a dream.
Sales have risen very fast, but they are not comparable
In September, eight new car-making forces successively disclosed sales data. From the data point of view of "Intelligent Relativity", the sales of each company have broken through the new monthly high and increased, and both have improved in different degrees compared with the previous month.
(Data source officially released, not complete statistics)
As can be seen from the above table, the sales of the new forces in September were quite good. The two top brands, Weilai and Xiaopeng, ran 133.2% and 145.0% year-on-year growth respectively. The most exciting thing is that in only 9 months, even with the impact of the epidemic, the sales of Weilai, Ideal, and Xiaopeng have exceeded 10,000, and the total sales are expected to rise again. Weimar’s sales are also close to 10,000. Last year, Xiaopeng Motors sold only 16,000 a year.
But if you want to compare, the new energy vehicle market is not the exclusive stage for the new forces, and it is by no means they are the leading players on the stage.
(Data source officially released)
Among the top 20 pure electric vehicle sales in September this year, only Weilai, Xiaopeng, Weimar, and Hezhong are on the list, and the rankings are relatively lagging. Among them, Nezha is a brand model of Hezhong Auto. Ideal ONE is not pure Electric cars missed the list.
It can be seen from the above list that if new forces want to challenge Tesla head-on, they have to pass the traditional car company first. The sales of new energy vehicles of BYD, SAIC, BAIC, Great Wall and other auto companies are significantly ahead of the new forces. For example, the total monthly sales of the four BYD models on the list reached 9,291, which is the sum of the quarterly sales of all new forces except Weilai. You must know that the current main sales model of traditional car companies is still fuel vehicles. New energy car products can only be regarded as a "sideline business". Just like Tian Ji's horse racing, traditional car companies can easily defeat the new forces with their "inferior horses". The gap between the two sides is not even a star and a half.
As for the gap with Tesla, it is even greater.
At present, Tesla's Shanghai Pudong Super Factory has an annual production capacity of 250,000 vehicles, which will contribute half of the production capacity to this year's 500,000 delivery target. As the domestic production rate continues to increase, Tesla has successively reduced prices, and the price advantage of new forces no longer exists. In the future, they will face more intense close competition. In addition, new energy products from international brands such as Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz will gradually enter the market.
There is not much time left for new forces to build cars.
The increasingly urgent time and the indefinite "harvest season"
As the market sets up the stage, Tesla and traditional car companies play the leading role, and there are other powerful players around. Although the new forces sit on the home field and capital enthusiasm, they also clearly feel the urgency of time, and the catching-up gap is imminent.
Let's take a look at Wei Lai, who is at the forefront of the new forces.
In early August, Weilai Automobile released its Q2 quarterly financial report, announcing good news of profitability. Since 2019, Weilai has achieved a positive gross profit margin for the first time.
(Image source Weilai official website)
Is this a turning point for Weilai to usher in a "better harvest"? Has Weilai really "come out of the ICU" as Li Bin said?
Still take Tesla as a reference.
On October 22, Tesla released its Q3 financial report. In the third quarter, total revenue was $8.771 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39%. This is also the fifth consecutive quarter of profitability for Tesla since the Q3 quarter of 2019.
In these five quarters, Tesla has delivered nearly 80,000 new cars from the quarter to 139,300. This year, it has set a delivery target of 500,000.
In comparison between the two, Weilai's current achievements are really insignificant.
(Data source officially announced)
At present, Weilai ES6, ES8, EC6 three SUV models are on sale, and perhaps EE7, ET, EVE three sedans will be launched in the future, stimulated by new cars, Weilai may usher in a wave of growth. However, the predecessor of Weilai's first sedan, EE7, was unveiled as early as 2019. It will not be released until 2020 NIO Day on January 9 next year. The official listing will have to wait until 2022.
The distant water is difficult to quench the near thirst. The annual sales target set by Li Bin of 100,000 will be difficult to achieve this year, and a short-term "good harvest" is basically impossible.
Similarly, to achieve the ideal of turning positive in profitability, at present, only one product of the ideal ONE is used to make the world, and the imagination for sales is limited to a very small range. In addition, the four new models under planning are still in the PPT, and the program is added. Technology has been repeatedly questioned, and Li Xiangdu was forced to appear on Weibo and end the debate in person. There is still a long torment between ideals and the "harvest season".
What else do the new forces do if they want a bumper harvest?
After a wave of new forces scouring the sand, it has shrunk from more than 200 at the beginning to about 10 at present, and there may only be 3 in the future. For them who are still at the table, how their core element becomes sales A frequent visitor to the list, and a frequent visitor at the top.
There is not much know-how, just how to turn the wonderful plans and promises in the PPT for the era of smart cars into reality.
Weilai and Ideal have been listed, and Xiaopeng and Weimar are also in the process of impacting the IPO. The new forces can be recognized by the capital market and become the focus of industry attention. A large part of the reason is that they have been in brand planning and product at the beginning of their creation. Subversive thinking innovations brought to the automotive industry in terms of manufacturing, marketing methods, and ecological construction.
The "Intelligent Theory of Relativity" feels that the new forces present to the industry and users are still a traditional impression.
On the intelligence capabilities of the product, there are a few blocks from the Tesla; on brand building and marketing of innovative, original owners of the positioning of certain communication space of the home, its essence is still the core of 4S shop exhibition hall of shedding; s The construction of the smart car ecology sounds very tempting. The power swap mode and the power station swap are virtual. Who knows how to use the experience.
In short, when the boasting in the PPT will be honored, when will the new forces usher in a real "bumpy harvest."
*The pictures in this article are from the Internet
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